Mounting Tensions in Eastern DRC Disrupt SAMIDRC Withdrawal Framework

The security environment in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), continues to deteriorate, significantly complicating the planned drawdown of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC). Initially structured around an air evacuation from Goma Airport, the withdrawal will now proceed by road through Rwanda to Chato, Tanzania, due to renewed fighting and the closure of air access routes.

This revised approach was agreed upon during a strategic meeting on 11 April in Dar es Salaam, which brought together the Chiefs of Defence from South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi—the three troop-contributing countries to SAMIDRC. The SADC Secretariat is engaging Rwandan authorities to ensure safe and unimpeded transit.

SAMIDRC accused by M23

According to African Security Analysis (ASA), recent offensives launched by the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC), supported by Wazalendo militias, have dislodged M23/Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) from several key positions, leading to renewed instability around Goma. In reaction, M23 has accused SAMIDRC of participating in joint operations—allegations which have since been publicly refuted.

On 14 April, the Southern African Development Community issued an official statement from its headquarters in Gaborone, Botswana, addressing the accusations made by M23 in a 12 April communiqué. “SADC firmly refutes these allegations. SAMIDRC has not participated in any joint operations as claimed. These assertions are both inaccurate and misleading,” the statement read. It further emphasized that SAMIDRC is implementing a structured and coordinated withdrawal in line with directives from the SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government and reaffirmed the organization’s commitment to the agreement reached with M23 leadership on 28 March in Goma.

SADC also called on all stakeholders to refrain from disseminating misinformation and to act in a manner that promotes stability and de-escalation.

Independent analysts have echoed SADC’s position. Darren Olivier, Director of the African Defence Review, stated that there is no verifiable evidence supporting M23’s claims. “Our sources confirm that SAMIDRC troops remain confined to their bases in Goma and Sake, with only limited logistical movement,” he said. Olivier suggested that the accusations may be an attempt to pressure SADC or influence the regional diplomatic landscape.

He also described M23’s demand that MONUSCO hand over FARDC personnel reportedly sheltering in its facilities as “unrealistic and provocative,” potentially signalling a risk of future tensions involving the UN peacekeeping mission.

M23 has blocked off access to Goma

ASA can further report that M23/AFC has positioned anti-aircraft systems on Mont Goma Hill and blocked major access routes around Goma, effectively sealing off the area. Although M23 is currently allowing the removal of SAMIDRC equipment, this arrangement remains unstable. The overland route through Rwanda presents significant logistical and security obstacles and was not part of the mission’s original extraction plan.

While there have been modest improvements in logistical support to SAMIDRC personnel in recent weeks, their situation remains tenuous. Surrounded by M23 and Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF), the troops are vulnerable to further escalation. Analysts believe that M23’s actions may be aimed at consolidating military and political control over Goma, particularly ahead of expected visits by Congolese opposition figures who have expressed concerns about their security in the city.

With SADC’s formal response now on record, the regional body has reiterated its commitment to a peaceful and diplomatic resolution. Nonetheless, the viability of a safe and orderly SAMIDRC withdrawal remains uncertain.